Summary
Futures Wheel: A Tool for Examining Implications of Change
Whether it involves thinking through the implications of a decision, considering possible outcomes of an event such as COVID-19 or ideating on the impacts of a trend, facing change means grappling with a certain level of uncertainty. No one can know the future, and it is impossible to think through the full range of implications of a change.
However, using Futures Wheels can help surface implications beyond the immediate, first-order consequences of change and can help develop an understanding of causality by mapping how a change can create a ripple effect of other changes. Examining those implications can help clarify how to navigate the murky waters of change and can bring to light other potential changes that might have gone unexamined.
Futures Wheels were created by futurist Jerome C. Glenn in the early 1970’s to help visualize the direct and indirect implications of a decision, trend or event. I find them to be a fantastic visual idea generation tool. While Futures Wheels can be completed solo, they are best done in groups. If you are grappling with change, you can use Futures Wheels to help push your thinking beyond the immediate, sometimes obvious implications of change by creating your own Futures Wheel using the steps outlined below.
Source: Knowledge Works
About
Description
To start a futures wheel the central term describing the change to evaluate is positioned in the center of the page (or drawing area). Then, events or consequences following directly from that development are positioned around it. Next, the (indirect) consequences of the direct consequences are positioned around the first level consequences. The terms may be connected as nodes in a tree (or even a web). The levels will often be marked by concentric circles.
Usage
The futures wheel is usually used to organize thoughts about a future development or trend. With it, possible impacts can be collected and put down in a structured way. The use of interconnecting lines makes it possible to visualize interrelationships of the causes and resulting changes. Thus, futures wheels can assist in developing multi-concepts about possible future development by offering a futures-conscious perspective and aiding in the group brainstorming.
