The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040

Summary

In a two-pronged Fall 2023 research initiative, Elon University’s Imagining the Digital Future Center completed a U.S. national public opinion poll and a canvassing of more than 300 technology developers, business and policy leaders, researchers, analysts and advocates. It explores the potential impact of AI on individuals’ personal lives and on bedrock aspects of society, such as politics and elections, health care delivery, education and others.

The research findings reveal a wide range of views, with many expressing concerns over serious challenges to human well-being and worry over unprepared human systems, others looking optimistically to great advances in quality of life and a great number in the middle who are uncertain and uneasy about the changes ahead.

Source: ITDF Webpage

OnAir Post: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040

News

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040
Elon University Webpage – February 29, 2024

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence: A New Age of Enlightenment? A New Threat to Humanity?

Public opinion survey: Americans fear the impact of AI on privacy, jobs, relationships, politics and elections

Expert views: AI advances by 2040 will force us to reimagine what it means to be human and to restructure or replace current institutions

Technology experts and the U.S. public share serious concerns about the future of privacy, job opportunities, politics and elections, civility and other aspects of life, according to a new report from Elon University outlining their views about the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI).

This report, “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040,” finds both the general public and experts believe enormous upheavals are on the horizon as AI spreads. Many experts go so far as to say that we will have to reimagine what it means to be human and that societies must restructure, reinvent or replace existing institutions and systems. At the same time, they embrace the idea that important benefits will also result from the spread of AI.

This is the first report released by Elon’s expanded Imagining the Digital Future Center under the leadership of Lee Rainie, who joined the university after a 24-year career directing Pew Research Center’s Internet and Technology research. The Center works to discover and broadly share a diverse range of opinions, ideas and original research about the impact of digital change, informing important conversations and policy formation.

The new study combines a national public opinion survey with a canvassing of hundreds of technology experts that has been the hallmark of the 48 previous research reports produced by Elon in partnership with Pew Research Center since 2004.

“This special two-pronged research into public and elite opinion shows how disruptive many think AI will be to essential dimensions of life,” Rainie said. “Both groups expressed concerns over the future of privacy, wealth inequalities, politics and elections, employment opportunities, the level of civility in society and personal relationships with others. At the same time, there are more hopeful views about AI making life easier, more efficient and safer in some important respects. Virtually everyone agrees this is a pivotal moment for how the future plays out with AI.”

Rainie noted that the rapid development of ChatGPT and other AI tools has raised public awareness and caused considerable worry as well as great optimism about the ways AI tools may make life easier, more efficient and potentially safer.

The separate canvassing of more than 300 technology experts provided an opportunity for technology developers, business and policy leaders, researchers, analysts and academics to contribute essays about the potential coming impact of AI. Some envision a future when economies and work are overhauled, people have personal digital assistants and diminished skills in making their own choices, when AI-created deepfakes and disinformation create alternate definitions of “truth,” and when there are major advances in medical diagnostics and treatment.

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Executive Summary

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Elon University’s Imagining the Digital Future Center conducted a two-pronged study in late 2023 to develop an outlook for the impact of artificial intelligence on individuals and societal systems by 2040. Research findings were gathered using two methodologies: a national public opinion survey and a canvassing of hundreds of global technology experts.

A large share of both the public and the experts expressed concerns about how disruptive AI will be to essential dimensions of life: the future of privacy, wealth inequalities, politics and elections, employment opportunities, the level of civility in society and personal relationships with others. At the same time, they expressed hopes about AI applications making life easier, more efficient and safer in many important respects. There was wide agreement that now is a pivotal moment for AI and humans.

National Public Opinion Poll

Two-thirds of the Americans polled expect AI to have a negative impact on personal privacy, and more than half expect negative consequences in regard to employment opportunities. More than half surveyed expect AI to have negative impacts on politics and elections, and 40% said they fear a worsening of the level of civility in society due to AI impact. They indicate that the most positive outlook is for AI-inspired improvements in healthcare systems and the quality of medical treatment.

See detailed national public opinion poll findings

The Center’s 17^th “Future of Digital Life” Canvassing of Experts

More than 300 technology developers, business and policy leaders, researchers and analysts responded to a battery of questions about the likely impact of AI by 2040. Among the hundreds of future visions: amplified “knowledge” will lead to the Mind²; AI will diminish human agency, empowering those who develop it; AI-borne mis- and disinformation continually rewrites definitions of “the truth”; economies/work and health/medicine are overhauled in a way that makes life better for most people. The following themes reflect the most-often expressed insights found among these experts’ responses:

Theme 1 – We will have to reimagine what it means to be human: As AI tools integrate into most aspects of life, some experts predict the very definition of a “human,” “person” or “individual” will change.

Theme 2 – Societies must restructure, reinvent or replace entrenched systems: These experts urge that societies fundamentally change long-established institutions and systems. They argued for a more equitable distribution of wealth and power and said the spread of AI requires new multistakeholder governance from diverse sectors of society.

Theme 3 – Humanity could be greatly enfeebled by AI: Some experts are concerned that uses of AI could diminish human agency and skills. Some worry it will nearly eliminate critical thinking, reading and decision-making abilities and healthy, in-person connectedness, and lead to more mental health problems. Some fear the impact of mass unemployment on people’s psyches and behaviors.

Theme 4 – Don’t fear the tech; people are the problem and the solution: A large share of these experts say their first concern isn’t that AI will “go rogue.” They mostly worry that advanced AI may magnify dangers already evident today due to people’s uses and abuses of digital tools. They fear a rise in problems tied to extractive capitalism, menacing and manipulative tactics exercised by bad actors, and autocratic governments’ violations of human rights.

Theme 5 – Key benefits from AI will arise: Many experts described likely gains to be seen as AI diffuses through society. They expect that most people will enjoy and benefit from AI’s assistance, especially in education, business, research and medicine/health. They expect it will boost innovation and reconfigure and liberate people’s use of time.

Explore the full Experts report and read insightful essays

Source: ITDF Website